10 Gigabit DatacomTransceiver Market Will Reach $9 Billion by 2010

SAN MATEO, Calif., June 1 -- According to a new market study from ElectroniCast, the use of 10 Gb/s datacom transceiver modules will increase from a modest start in 2001 with $157 million to more than $9 billion in 2010. The report includes a detailed database showing the global consumption (quantity, price per module, and value) forecasts of 10 Gb/s datacom transceivers over the five applications. The OC-192 very short reach (VSR) and the proprietary 10 Gb/s interconnect markets are considered crossover markets for 10 Gb/s datacom transceivers.
The early deployments of 10 Gb/s datacom transceivers in 2001 will total less than 100 thousand units but this will increase with a serious rollout of 10 Gb/s datacom links with volumes of nearly 2 million units in 2003. Explosive growth will then continue over the next several years, reaching nearly 7 million units in 2005. There will be a strong influence of 10-gigabit ethernet in the total consumption, followed by 10-gigabit fiber channel in the latter half of the forecast.
"The use of low-cost 10 Gb/s datacom transceivers [specifically 4-fiber parallel] in the OC-192 VSR application shows an impact early in the forecast and continues as a strong crossover market throughout the forecast period," ElectroniCast president Stephen Montgomery said. "The portion of INFINIBAND that requires 10 Gb/s transceivers [also 4-fiber parallel] begins to make an impact in 2005, becoming very significant from 2006-2010."

Figure 1: 10 Gb/s Datacom Transceiver Summed Global Consumption Value Forecast ($ Million). Source: ElectroniCast Corp.

The strong ramps in volume for the 10 gigabit ethernet and the OC-192 VSR applications lead the first year of serious deployment in 2002 with $1.14 billion, as shown in Figure 1. Very strong value growth continues, even with declining module pricing, through the next several years, reaching $4.4 billion in global consumption by 2005 and $5.9 billion in 2006. Declining prices ease value growth beyond 2006, reaching just over $9 billion in 2010.