A roadblock on the roadmap

JAKE SALTZMAN, EDITOR JAKE.SALTZMAN@PHOTONICS.COM

Photonics Spectra’s seeming prescience is a fortunate by-product of our monthly publication schedule. The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences’ decision to award Pierre Agostini, Ferenc Krausz, and Anne L’Huillier last year’s Nobel Prize in Physics, for example, greatly simplified the selection of our November 2023 cover story; contributing editor Marie Freebody, as if by fate, had polished off an article on attosecond sources days prior to the academy’s announcement.

Sometimes the stars align.

A similar scenario came into play this month as the ink dried on contributing editor James Schlett’s article, “Bottlenecks in Process and Production Hinder Micro-LED Adoption,” here. Schlett dives into the micro-LED technology roadmap and cites a recently published report from the MicroLED Industry Association (MIA). Among the insightful information provided by the MIA is its belief that its members will struggle to achieve mass production for almost all applications for two to five years.

For a still-nascent technology like micro-LEDs, the enduring difficulties involving the repeatability of critical steps in its design and manufacturing phases is a telling indicator that the technology lacks the maturity to sustain commercial applications and market presence. It further signifies that the possibility of a major hit to any prospect for commercial success will be tied on some level to these design and manufacturing challenges.

It seemed as if our editorial cycle proved to be prescient again; photonics titan ams OSRAM revealed the unexpected cancellation of a massive initiative driven by its micro-LED business. The project was reported to be a collaboration with Apple centered on the tech giant’s micro-LED Apple Watch.

Accordingly, it was anticipated to be a lucrative financial endeavor. ams OSRAM said that because of the cancellation, it expects its profits for fiscal year 2024 to decrease by as much as $50 million (pre-tax). This figure falls well short of what the company anticipated that it would be bringing in from the project.

Experts like Yole Group weighed in to provide clarity on the sudden shift to the micro-LED industry landscape. Via its report, “Did Apple just kill the microLED industry,” Yole addressed the likelihood of difficulties emerging for young and startup companies in advancing the immature technology in the short term without a clear prospect for micro-LED technology. This will be especially evident in a financial sense.

But beyond financials, the ams OSRAM-Apple fallout inhibits the micro-LED technology roadmap — specifically a variety of measurables that span the quantifiable and the qualifiable. These range from upscaling manufacturing to inciting a perception of bona fide technological legitimacy.

At least for now.

For ams OSRAM, which is neither young nor a startup company, the discontinuance occurs amid ongoing business adjustments and goals to focus on micro-LED technology. To be sure, the company isn’t the only firm (re)evaluating its display strategy.

For the rest of the sector, this news serves as a reminder that the promise of a technology never deviates from the process steps and systems that enable us to discern its commercial viability.

Fortunately, as Schlett writes, photonics can help overcome delays and bottlenecks, which it accomplishes through a range of technologies that, just like micro-LEDs, are subject to frequent and continuous innovation.

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